Football News and Information

Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley

Entering college football's 10th week of play there were 8 unbeaten teams remaining—Texas, Alabama, Penn State, Texas Tech, Utah, Boise State, Ball State and Tulsa. Penn State was 9-0, Boise State and Tulsa were 7-0 and the other 5 were 8-0.

Everyone paying attention knew that either Texas or Texas Tech would suffer their first loss as they were playing each other at Texas Tech. Few knew just how vulnerable Utah, Boise State, Ball State and Tulsa were to suffering their first defeat.

The AP Top 25 Poll had Texas as 1st, Alabama 2nd, Penn State 3rd, Texas Tech 6th, Utah 10th, Boise State 11th, Ball State 18th and Tulsa 19th.

Jeff Sagarin's Football Ratings and Schedule Rankings do not draw a lot of attention from the 65 national press representatives who cast ballots each week to determine the AP Top 25 Poll. The pundits do not talk or write about Sagarin very often, but there is much to be learned by paying attention to Sagarin's statistical analysis.

For example, there is a world of difference between Texas and Tulsa. Beginning the 10th week of play, Texas deserved to be 1st in the AP Poll with an 8-0 record and a Sagarin Strength of Schedule (SOS) of 18th. Simply put, Texas' 18th SOS ranking means the Longhorns have played a schedule equivalent to facing a Top 25 team every week.

Tulsa's 19th place in the AP Poll with a 7-0 record and a SOS rating of 131st is not deserved. The Golden Hurricane's 131st SOS ranking means they have played a schedule equivalent to facing a Division 1-AA team every week. There are only 119 teams in Division 1-A.

You could argue with some credibility that there are 82 teams in America that could beat Tulsa because Tulsa did lose 30-23 Saturday (11-1-08) to Arkansas, a 3-5 team that was at the bottom of the SEC's West standings, and was also rated 83rd by Sagarin.

The point is that there is no way under God's green Earth that Tulsa is the 19th best team in the country. It is great that the Golden Hurricane and the City of Tulsa had a nice 7-0 run as they started the season against some substandard 1-A competition. Tulsa's actual record is 8-0 but everyone ignores its victory of Central Arkansas which is not even a Division 1-A or 1-AA school but a Division II school. Good grief, what's next, the local high school team?

Ball State's 8-0 mark and 18th place AP ranking is nothing to write home to mom about either. The Cardinals have a 116th SOS ranking which again means they have played an equivalent of a 1-AA every week. They have gotten fat against a lot of weak teams.

Boise State is not much better with its 11th place AP ranking and 110th SOS ranking. There is no way Boise State is the 11th best team in the country, even if the Broncos did shut out a 2-5 New Mexico State team 49-0 Saturday. At least the Broncos have one quality win over Oregon on the road, which is more than Tulsa and Ball State can say.

When Tulsa, Ball State and Boise State started winning every week the idea was to run the table (go undefeated) and sneak into a BCS bowl game for great national recognition and a fat paycheck. There is nothing wrong with their intentions. They just may not make it and, incidentally, there is no way Boise State is the 11th best team in the country.

Texas Tech is 6th in the AP and has an SOS ranking of 91. Give the Red Raiders credit, they just hosted and knocked off No. 1 Texas 39-33. You can bet their SOS ranking will rise since playing a No. 1-ranked team. Going into the game, Texas had a SOS ranking of 18, the best among the undefeated teams.

For the record, Alabama had an SOS ranking of 49; Penn State was 63 and Utah 94. Alabama shut out Arkansas State 35-0 Saturday and Utah barely got by a 4-5 New Mexico team 13-10, showing just how weak the Utah Utes really are and they are 10th in the AP Poll, which is ridiculous. Utah must still face TCU and BYU.

Penn State and Ball State were idle this week.

The reality is that 4 of the 8 unbeaten teams—Texas, Alabama, Penn State and Texas Tech—deserved to be ranked in the AP and the other 4—Utah, Boise State, Ball State and Tulsa—either do not deserve to be in the AA Top 25 or should be ranked considerably lower.